Wednesday, December 03, 2008

The Markets Have Motion Sickness

via Matthew Yglesias:
Here’s a look at some different time periods and the total number of days the S&P 500 has moved up or down more than 5% during the trading day:

* 1950-2000: 27 days
* 2000-2006: 7 days
* Jan. 1-Sept. 30, 2008: 20 days
* Since Oct. 1, 2008: 22 days

I don’t think I’ve seen anyone even seriously attempt to explain why this would happen. Stock market crashes are, obviously, not unprecedented. But never before have they entailed this kind of wild, up-and-down day-to-day swinging. What’s different now?
Basically, you have the internet and the majority of people investing money in the stock market don’t know what they’re doing, viewing equity investment as something like near-term gambling. Plus ample amounts of fear and greed.

What are things worth? The one thing I know is that no one knows.

Except: “Not only have individual financial institutions become less vulnerable to shocks from underlying risk factors, but also the financial system as a whole has become more resilient.” – Alan Greenspan 2004

Source: TIME

An Obama Press Confrence vs A Bush Press Conference

Fox asks first press question, Obama cracks funny joke. Answers tough question. The world continues. [The Bush version would be: Fox asks lay-up question, Bush makes a fool of himself that we find funny in a moronic way, answers question in circular "they have sovereignty because they are sovereign" style, world collapses.]



Fox’s Wendell Goler began by thanking Obama for calling on him, and then proceeded to ask about the TARP funds and Bill Richardson’s now-removed beard. Obama began by offering a light-hearted take on Richardson’s beard:
"I’m going to answer this question about the beard. I think it was a mistake for him to get rid of it. I thought that whole western, rugged look was really working for him. … We’re deeply disappointed with the loss of the beard".
This marks more press conferences by Obama in 30 days than Bush held in the last year. It's how the government should be run.

Source: ThinkProgress

Define "Winning"

Bill Kristol claimed last night in a debate "we've won the war in Iraq".

Past tense. Interesting.

Andrew Sullivan:
"Of all the idiotic things that Bill Kristol has said, this has to be one of the dumbest. We currently have around 150,000 troops occupying Iraq. By coopting the Sunni tribes, engaging in serious counter-insurgency, dividing Baghdad into walled sectarian enclaves, and exploiting exhaustion, we are no longer hosting a murderous civil war. But we have not left; there is no stable state to fill the security vacuum that will be created by our departure, and violence remains a daily occurrence."
The Wonk Room's Matt Duss notes,
"I suppose if one redefines 'won' as 'completely failed to produce any of the positive effects I previously insisted would be forthcoming, but avoided the very worst imaginable outcome,' then Kristol's is a plausible statement. Here in the world of words with agreed-upon meanings, however, there is simply no defensible calculus by which the Iraq war can be judged to have been a success for U.S. foreign policy."

My Editorial: Putting The "Con" In Conservative

Conservatives and Republicans love to say they are fiscally responsible. At the same time they have a President like Bush, who they have never complained about, who has spent more, borrowed more and has Nationalized more than any President ever. He cut taxes for the first time during a war[s], and that war subsequently wasted billions of dollars, destabilized the oil market and shot gas prices to record levels. Pretty much the exact opposite of the definition of fiscally responsible.

How do you act fiscally responsible? How do you pay for all this mess? You eliminate the costly wars. You collect taxes to pay for you spend, even if it means letting tax cuts for the rich expire. You stimulate the markets with infrastructure projects. You change your perception around the world in hopes of increasing exports. You bring all sides to the table to figure out the big problems. You act fiscally and you act responsibly. You do what Obama is trying to do.

But ask any conservative [and I have plenty in my own family] if they are happy with true fiscal responsibility, especially if they are a Bushie, and they will fire back with a doom and gloom talking point: Obama is going to take money from everyone and force them to pay for health care forcing mass lay-offs. They have seen the future, apparently, assumed the worst, and have predicted all the changes to tax codes and universal health care will destroy them.

Not that the last 8 years have destroyed the economy, financial markets, job growth and retirement funds. They don't see those facts, those are hard to assess blame to. Not that the credit markets have been wiped out and borrowing will be near impossible or lay-offs might be based on the economy shrinking and consumer confidence nose-diving. Nothing that can be attributed to the "spend and borrow, deregulation, free markets run the world" conservative mindset that Bush exploited. Nope, that's just life to them. Capitalism.

To them, it's the the answer, it's the solution, it's the hard work of running the system the right way that will destroy everything. Up until now things were great. And what adds to my fury is the childlike fairy tale revisionism they have, the simple "Bush was a good man, just trying to do a good job". Add any semblance of fact and their wishful thinking is destroyed.

It's remarkable how conservatives get to have it both ways. They get to trumpet how mindlessly they forgot their values and let a financial hell storm evolve under a clueless President like Bush, them complain about how someone is going to solve it, using the values they espouse, like Obama. They have Bush socialize Wall St and bail-out every big Industry that cries for money then call Obama a Marxist for trying to pay for everything.

It couldn't be any more backwards. Act fiscally responsible and the Republicans show their true colors, that they were never for responsibility when it came to running government, it was all a con.

UK ID Cards Not So Voluntary

The UK is upping the ante in the ID reality game, a massive bureaucratic waste of time favored by conservatives:
When the Government introduced its ID card legislation several years ago, it made one thing clear. Even though it would be obligatory to register on the ID database when obtaining a new passport, it would not be compulsory to carry a card.

This has led some people to assume that the scheme is voluntary. It is not, except insofar as someone whose passport has expired is happy never to travel abroad again. But ministers recognised that the scope for ID ‘matrydom’ was high if people were forced to carry an ID card.

The last identity system was abolished in 1952 following a celebrated case prompted by the refusal of a man called Clarence Willcock to produce his card when required to by a police officer. Mr Willcock reasoned that as the war that necessitated their introduction was over, he had no need to carry ID with him. The Government wanted to avoid creating an army of Clarence Willcocks so deliberately did not make it a legal requirement to carry ID.

Now it turns out that they are planning to sneak in just such a power presumably hoping that no-one noticed. But the eagle-eyed lawyers at Liberty spotted that clauses in the draft Borders, Immigration and Citizenship Bill – confirmed as part of the Government’s programme for this session of parliament in the Queen’s Speech - give state officials the power to make anyone who has ever entered the country, at any time, prove who they are.

This would effectively cover any British citizen who has ever left the UK, even for a holiday, because they will have "entered" the UK on their return. It will mean that for the first time in more than half a century that the police will be able to demand your papers.
But the whole scheme falls flat from an immigration point of view unless everyone has one, is made to carry it, and is legally obliged to present it to the police when asked! How else do you tell illegal immigrants from British citizens?

“Hello Sir, could I see your ID Card”
“I don’t need one, I’m British”
“Hmm, you look a bit foreign to me. You’re nicked!”
“Why?”
“For not showing me your ID…”

Source: Telegraph UK

Retired Generals: End Bush's Torture Policies, Close Gitmo

Via ThinkProgress:
Addressing speculation that he “is unlikely to radically overhaul controversial Bush administration intelligence policies,” President-elect Barack Obama pledged last month to end torture as part of “an effort to regain America’s moral stature in the world.” Today, a dozen retired generals and admirals will meet with Obama’s transition team “to plead for a clean, unequivocal break with the Bush administration’s interrogation, detention and rendition policies.” The officers also want Guantanamo Bay closed, an effort that would force Obama “to decide what to do with inmates who can’t be tried for war crimes yet are deemed too dangerous to be released.

"Gradualism won't do. It's time for an abrupt change," said Vice Adm. Lee Gunn, a former Navy inspector general. "That abrupt change will send a signal to the world that America is back."”
Read that out loud. Obama will have to end torture. Restore America's image.

All those "we do not torture" statements the Bush Administration made were false. And they knowingly lied. Crimes were committed. This is not a "blame the intel" argument, or blame it on something Clinton did 10 years ago. When asked, they lied.

Also, a reader points out, the last line: “inmates who can’t be tried for war crimes yet are deemed too dangerous to be released.”

The above summation is a typical example of the mindlessness so entrenched in our media. War crimes are formal charges brought and determined by public courts of Law and in accordance with internationally recognized procedures and rights, such as habeas corpus, disclosure and so on.

Gitmo and its military tribunals were and still are utterly illegal under US and International law.

The logic behind this is all Cheney and Bush. One guy who wants all the power, and the other too dumb to question anything.

Source: WaPo

Tuesday, December 02, 2008

Jim Cramer: Hire Me As SEC Chairman

Mad Money host Jim Cramer makes his case for SEC Chairman on air to Obama.



Sorry for the ALL CAPS, part of the transcript:
I'M A LAWYER BY TRAINING -- I SOUND LIKE AN AD RIGHT -- A STOCK JOCK, A FORMER HEDGE FUND MANAGER, A GUY WHO KNOWS THE TRICKS AND HAS SEEN OTHERS DO THEM. ALTHOUGH TO BE VERY CLEAR, I NEVER DID ANYTHING ILLEGAL OR EVEN CLOSE TO UNETHICAL, BECAUSE IN THE END, I AM A GOODY TWO SHOES AND I ACTUALLY HAVE A NEW PAIR OF GOOODY TWO SHOES.
Entire transcript at the link.

Source: HuffPo

Charlie Gibson Interviews President George Bush Pt 1

First of many exit interviews. No shame.

Good Looking People On TV, Or Lack There Of

My Mom always complains [maybe take notice would be a nicer term] about how men on TV, like TV anchors or hosts, can be old and tired looking, yet women have to be young and pretty. Andrea Mitchell anyone?

So the naming of David Gregory and his half monkey face and straw wig to host Meet The Press only validates my mom's gripe.

On the subject, Tina Brown had a good article on The Daily Beast and suggested Rachel Maddow.
"NBC seems to be paralyzed by the sense that whomever they chose has to be another Russert. Not so. Russert defined an era, but that era is over. It’s as if in the months since he died the hands of the clock have spun with accelerated speed, leaving us all with a desire for reinvention.

Or how about… a woman? Since NBC has not heeded my last suggestion to appoint either the unsung cable Rottweiler Greta Van Susteren or a reinvented, post-Palin Katie Couric, I say give Meet the Press to Rachel Maddow. She’s smart. She’s quick. She’s witty. She does her homework. And she listens to what the person she’s talking to is saying. She doesn't just go to the next question on her list
."
Source: The Daily Beast

Jimmy Kimmel Test Obama Jokes' Limit

h/t to Oliver Willis

Jimmy Kimmel takes it to the barber shop to ask what is and what is not the limit for Obama jokes.
"what if I were to say his policies have a very large penis"

Juan Cole On Mumbai Attacks

Policy realism.

Juan Cole
, insightful Middle East professor and my latest friend on myspace, writes on who was behind the Mumbai terrorist attacks:
"When the Soviets withdrew in 1988-1989 from Afghanistan and the Mujahideen took over, the Pakistani military lost control of its northern neighbor. It therefore funded and promoted the Taliban (expatriate Afghan young men who had been through Deobandi seminaries in northern Pakistan) from 1994, enabling them to take over Afghanistan. The Taliban ran terrorist training camps, at which the Sipah-e Sahaba and the Lashkar-e Tayiba trained for missions in Kashmir.

....The cell that hit Mumbai was probably a rogue splinter group. They completely disregarded the old Lashkar-e Tayiba concentration on hitting only Indian troops in Kashmir, targeting civilians instead. It is very unlikely that anyone in the Pakistani military put them up specifically to this Mumbai operation. This attack was much more likely to be blowback, when a covert operation produces unexpected consequences or agents that were previously reliable go rogue.

....If the Pakistani government does not give up this covert terrorist campaign in Kashmir and does not stop coddling the radical vigilantes who go off to fight there, South Asian terrorism will grow as a problem and very possibly provoke the world's first nuclear war (possible death toll: 20 million)."
I think some Hiroshima and Nagasaki residents may differ on that last point.

It's time we had an adult discussion about Kashmir, drugs and terror. The old Russia/Afghan/Reagan and Bush/Musharraf/Blind Funding models are over.

Obama and HR Clinton have inherited a Pakistan that needs to redefine itself within its borders, as well as, in the region.

I can't believe all this over Kashmir? No oil. Just Hindus vs Muslims. Ah! religion.

The entire story and background hereSource: Juan Cole

Presidential Press Conferences Need Better Questions

Now that the press seems to think they have balls and can ask "tough" questions of the President, yes I mean Obama and not Bush, they have to learn the difference between tough and good questions. For example, Time's Joe Klein:
What's the point of raising the nasty things Obama and Clinton said about each other during the primaries? Did the reporter expect Obama to say, "Well, I still believe her resume is overblown, that's why I appointed her...oh, and by the way, she still thinks it's dumb to talk to the Iranians without preconditions."
These boring Tim Russert style "gotcha soundbytes" are tired.

We now have a President who is educated, intelligent and can sidestep those lame questions. The press for a long time were lazy because expectations of Bush were so low: why ask thorough questions because you might make his head explode. It's tough work being Preznit, afterall.

The MSM has to get with the program, catch up to the high standard Barack has set. I heard TPM just hired a Washington reporter. Maybe the reader-supported blog-crew can do better.

Source: Kevin Drum

Bush's Torture Policies

Jack Balkin and Eric Posner, both prominent University lawyers, discuss Bush's use of torture on bloggingheads.tv. Posner tries to defend what Bush and Cheney did, or more to the point what their lawyers said they could do, Balkin tears it apart [much like Bush shredded the Constitution].



Complete interview here: Source: bloggingheads

Obamacons Need More To Get Over Bush Failures

Consultant and notorious Political Hitman Roger Stone was quoted a few weeks back for regretting his role in helping elect Bush in the 2000 presidential recount in Florida. He wants to set the record . I'm sure he speaks for a lot of conservatives.
"Let's get a couple of things straight. I renounced Bushism not Republicanism or Conservatism. Between the Bush Administration's spending, their right wing social agenda, and their assault on civil liberties, this Administration cannot be considered Conservative in the classical sense. True Conservatives support fiscal conservatism on spending as well as low taxes, don't want Big Brother Government listening to our phone calls and don't want the government making decisions in our private lives. Bushism and Conservatism should not be confused."
It's a stage of denial I hope he can get all the Bush holdovers to come to grips with. It's a long road to recovery for most 2000-2008 conservatives. Bush was not a kinda sorta failure. He was a complete failure.

Stone goes on more at his blob: http://www.stonezone.com/index.php

Original story here: Source: The Daily Beast

Bush’s Backward Sprint To The Finish

Add another notch in Bush's belt for screwing people over:
Yesterday, President Bush issued an executive order “that denies collective bargaining rights to about 8,600 federal employees who work in law enforcement, intelligence and other agencies responsible for national security.”
Seems Bush wants to cement his "Worst President Ever" title with all these last-minute regulations, orders, and proposed rule changes.

You can see the running list here: Source: Bush’s Backward Sprint To The Finish

MSNBC Is The New Fox

A fawning station recast:

Chris Matthews is Bill O'Reilly: "freakishly oversized, ruddy-faced Irish multi-millionaire still clinging to his blue collar roots — and it helps if he's quick to anger"

Keith Olbermann is Sean Hannity: "partisan ideologue who fears for the world if it's in any way touched by the hands of his political enemies"

John Stewart commenting on the new Fox promo montage:
"Stay with Fox News: we will protect you from raging fire, Iranian nut jobs, angry gay lovers, and the Jew whispering to the black man."
More at the link below.


Source: HuffPo

Monday, December 01, 2008

Michael Phelps: Butter Face vs 8 Gold Medals

Today's Daily Distraction:

Olympian Michael Phelps new girlfriend, Caroline Pal. She's a Las Vegas cocktail waitress. Took her home for Thanksgiving. Really?

Bad back tatt and fake boobs. So classy.



Source: Mollygood