Grading the Election Theories

Mark Schmitt at the American Prospect grades all the election theories you've heard over the long election cycle. Some highlights:

Bradley Effect: F.
"Polls will be wrong because white voters lie and say they'll vote for a black candidate when they won't. Or, polls under represent lower-income whites who won't vote for a black candidate. Whatever version of the theory, it wasn't true and never was. There wasn't even a Bradley Effect in the election it's named after, L.A. Mayor Tom Bradley's 1982 campaign for California governor. He lost because of a gun-control initiative on the ballot that drew unexpected rural white turnout. The only interesting thing about the Bradley Effect is why so many in the press seemed deeply invested in believing it. Perhaps it was just shorthand for the doubt that Barack Obama would ever be elected president."

And:

Always trust Nate Silver: A+.
"Not really a theory, per se, but Silver's fivethirtyeight.com had an impeccable record all year. In the primaries, he operated from a core theory, which was that demographics would be a better predictor than polls, but for the general election, he used aggregations of polls in addition to creative demographic data, such as the ratio of Starbucks to Wal-Marts in a state, to make projections. More important than being right, Nate taught all of us (and all political wonks went to fivethirtyeight.com) a vast amount about electoral politics and demographics -- enough to make all the theories above look kind of simplistic."

Source: Mark Schmitt