At this point in the cycle, the generic ballot isn't the best predictor of November's final results, but nonetheless this is a nice trend to see:
CNN, 4/9-11. MoE 3.5% (3/28 results)That's an 8-point swing in the Democratic Party's direction in the wake of the passage of health care reform. It's also the first CNN generic ballot showing the Democrats leading since mid-November.
Generic ballot preference
among registered voters:
Democratic Party: 50% (45%)
Republican Party: 46% (49%)
A couple of other interesting findings from the poll:
First: In the (unfortunately) unlikely event Sarah Palin were to run for president, she'd be in real trouble. 69% of registered voters think she's unqualified to be President and she trails President Obama by a 55%-42% margin.
Second: Among Republicans, Mike "The Gay Basher" Huckabee is the leader of the field. Huckabee took 24%, leading Mitt Romney (20%), Palin (15%), Newt Gingrich (24%), and Ron Paul (8%).
There's a big gulf between the GOP's elite and their rank-and-file: Although Mitt Romney won last weekend's straw poll at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference, Huckabee managed just 4% of the straw poll vote of GOP insiders. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out in the event Huckabee runs.
As I have been saying all along: where is this Republican landslide in 2010 coming from? Fund raising is off, Michael Steele is in charge, and GOP leadership is laughable.Update, 1:18PM: Contra CNN's poll, Gallup shows the GOP with a 4-point edge in the generic ballot, a net gain of 4 points from last week's tie.
You can only get so far with "Obama Is Black".
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