Tuesday, April 13, 2010

CNN poll: Dems Retake Lead In Generic Ballot

At this point in the cycle, the generic ballot isn't the best predictor of November's final results, but nonetheless this is a nice trend to see:
CNN, 4/9-11. MoE 3.5% (3/28 results)
Generic ballot preference
among registered voters:

Democratic Party: 50% (45%)
Republican Party: 46% (49%)

That's an 8-point swing in the Democratic Party's direction in the wake of the passage of health care reform. It's also the first CNN generic ballot showing the Democrats leading since mid-November.
A couple of other interesting findings from the poll:
First: In the (unfortunately) unlikely event Sarah Palin were to run for president, she'd be in real trouble. 69% of registered voters think she's unqualified to be President and she trails President Obama by a 55%-42% margin.
Second: Among Republicans, Mike "The Gay Basher" Huckabee is the leader of the field. Huckabee took 24%, leading Mitt Romney (20%), Palin (15%), Newt Gingrich (24%), and Ron Paul (8%).
There's a big gulf between the GOP's elite and their rank-and-file: Although Mitt Romney won last weekend's straw poll at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference, Huckabee managed just 4% of the straw poll vote of GOP insiders. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out in the event Huckabee runs.
Update, 1:18PM: Contra CNN's poll, Gallup shows the GOP with a 4-point edge in the generic ballot, a net gain of 4 points from last week's tie.
As I have been saying all along: where is this Republican landslide in 2010 coming from? Fund raising is off, Michael Steele is in charge, and GOP leadership is laughable.

You can only get so far with "Obama Is Black".

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